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Post by shrewd on Nov 2, 2019 22:07:31 GMT
Want somewhere to record this little concept/system I have, and don't think there's a better place. So it's a (potential?) football system tailored to the Both Teams To Score market. I will analyze and try to find football matches in which both teams are: -Underachieving by -2+ goals offensively according to xG data. -Overachieving/riding their luck defensively (2+goals) according to xGa data. What is xG? Well, it's a statistical data recording that measures the quality of chances created or conceded based on several variables such as assist type, shot type, shot angle, shot location, etc. Adding up a players and team’s expected goals can give a strong indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored or conceded on average, based on the quality of chances they have had or conceded. It's generally proven to be a good indicator/predictor of performance, results and sustainability. So, based on the criteria, there's a few (near) qualifiers tomorrow for the little test: 11:00 (GMT) - FC Neftekhimik vs. Armavir (Russian 1st division) - 100% system match. 13:00 (GMT) - OB vs. Hobro (Denmark top league) - 90.3% system match. 14:00 (GMT) - Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice (Polish top league) - 100% system match. Unfortunately, the the Russian 1st division match isn't widely covered by the industry, so you can only back the treble (all both teams to score) with Marathon Bet @ 6.89 if anyone wants a nibble on it. Personally had split stake nibbles on the 100% qualifying double @ 3.33 and the 96% qualifying treble @ 6.89 treble at Marathon Bet. Again, it's a pilot, so I wouldn't recommend following me with your Sunday carvery money. Let's hope I'm onto something.  ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________  |
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Post by shrewd on Nov 3, 2019 1:24:00 GMT
So the treble can be got at Betfairsportsbook also @ 6.87.
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Post by shrewd on Nov 3, 2019 15:30:33 GMT
Want somewhere to record this little concept/system I have, and don't think there's a better place. So it's a (potential?) football system tailored to the Both Teams To Score market. I will analyze and try to find football matches in which both teams are: -Underachieving by -2+ goals offensively according to xG data. -Overachieving/riding their luck defensively (2+goals) according to xGa data. What is xG? Well, it's a statistical data recording that measures the quality of chances created or conceded based on several variables such as assist type, shot type, shot angle, shot location, etc. Adding up a players and team’s expected goals can give a strong indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored or conceded on average, based on the quality of chances they have had or conceded. It's generally proven to be a good indicator/predictor of performance, results and sustainability. So, based on the criteria, there's a few (near) qualifiers tomorrow for the little test: 11:00 (GMT) - FC Neftekhimik vs. Armavir (Russian 1st division) - 100% system match. WON
13:00 (GMT) - OB vs. Hobro (Denmark top league) - 90.3% system match. WON14:00 (GMT) - Gornik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice (Polish top league) - 100% system match. WONUnfortunately, the the Russian 1st division match isn't widely covered by the industry, so you can only back the treble (all both teams to score) with Marathon Bet @ 6.89 if anyone wants a nibble on it. Personally had split stake nibbles on the 100% qualifying double @ 3.33 (WON) and the 96% qualifying treble @ 6.89 (WON) treble at Marathon Bet. Again, it's a pilot, so I wouldn't recommend following me with your Sunday carvery money. Let's hope I'm onto something. Very promising start to the system, full house. Will post again when I find a qualifier(s). |
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Post by cosmo2018 on Nov 3, 2019 15:43:38 GMT
Nice one Shrewd good start to the system glad I followed small stakes look forward to the next ones👍
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Post by shrewd on Nov 3, 2019 15:56:04 GMT
Glad you got on Cosmo. That's what it's about.
There'll be bumps and near misses along the road, as it's football at the end of the day, but so long it leaves us in the green, that's all that matters!
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Post by cosmo2018 on Nov 3, 2019 16:42:09 GMT
Yeh been doing different football bets for a while first half goals btts etc money to be made if they go to plan I’m no expert follow others usually know you put hard work into these things so thanks again good luck in the future
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Post by shrewd on Nov 3, 2019 21:37:09 GMT
Just the one qualifier tomorrow:
13:30 (GMT) - Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan BTTS (Russian Premier division).
Best priced at 26/25 with 888sport, generally trading at evens. I'm having a play on the single, but nothing too mad - still early days & testing the water.
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Post by Bitchy on Nov 3, 2019 21:46:38 GMT
Welcome to the forum shrewd ,Thanks for sharing your system
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Post by shrewd on Nov 4, 2019 17:01:14 GMT
Just the one qualifier tomorrow: 13:30 (GMT) - Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan BTTS (Russian Premier division). Best priced at 26/25 with 888sport, generally trading at evens. I'm having a play on the single, but nothing too mad - still early days & testing the water. Today's system selection didn't win (0-0), but there are some positives to be taken from the fact there was 11 shots-on-target/saves recorded (which is 37.5% higher than the average match in the Russian Premier division), so the match identification feels as if it's on the right path. Sometimes they don't go in - there's a human between the post who wants to stop it - that's football. Onwards and upwards. Two qualifiers spotted for the remainder of the week: Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 00:30 (GMT) - Bahia vs. Chapecoense - (Brazilian Serie A) @ 2.45 / 29/20 Betfair Sportsbook ( 2.50 can be got elsewhere) Sunday at 16:00 (GMT) - Slavia Praha v Teplice - (Czech first division) No available price on the Sunday game, but may be able to double up tomorrow night or Wednesday morning, depending how early the industry open up markets for Sunday's Czech league games. |
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Post by shrewd on Nov 5, 2019 19:09:30 GMT
Just the one qualifier tomorrow: 13:30 (GMT) - Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan BTTS (Russian Premier division). Best priced at 26/25 with 888sport, generally trading at evens. I'm having a play on the single, but nothing too mad - still early days & testing the water. Today's system selection didn't win (0-0), but there are some positives to be taken from the fact there was 11 shots-on-target/saves recorded (which is 37.5% higher than the average match in the Russian Premier division), so the match identification feels as if it's on the right path. Sometimes they don't go in - there's a human between the post who wants to stop it - that's football. Onwards and upwards. Two qualifiers spotted for the remainder of the week: Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 00:30 (GMT) - Bahia vs. Chapecoense - (Brazilian Serie A) @ 2.45 / 29/20 Betfair Sportsbook ( 2.50 can be got elsewhere) Sunday at 16:00 (GMT) - Slavia Praha v Teplice - (Czech first division) No available price on the Sunday game, but may be able to double up tomorrow night or Wednesday morning, depending how early the industry open up markets for Sunday's Czech league games. Double available now. Pays 5.46 @ Betfair
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Post by shrewd on Nov 7, 2019 3:04:03 GMT
Fun game  Brazilian match comes good. Also just shy of a bonkers 30 shots in the game (away side naturally less as they were happy taking the early away lead), which indicates the match identification is on the right track. Trust the process.  |
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Post by shrewd on Nov 8, 2019 23:55:05 GMT
Couple of (near) qualifiers tomorrow:
11:00 (GMT) - Rubin Kazan vs. Dinamo Moscow - (Russian league) @ 11/10 Betfairsportsbook. (100% system match)
12:00 (GMT) - FK Mariupol vs. Karpaty - (Ukranian league) Evens @ Betfairsportsbook. (81% system match)
Singles and double. Annoyed I didn't spot these earlier in the week, in particular the 100% match. Could've had a little fourfold.
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Post by Pindropper on Nov 9, 2019 14:23:05 GMT
Only just seen this shrewdThank you for posting, unlucky with the first selection but the second won with a 2-2 finish. Will keep an eye on your postings and will try to follow/understand/learn the system. |
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Post by Pindropper on Nov 9, 2019 14:24:46 GMT
I think sometimes its easy to find something as a 100% system match and follow a bit more weighted/have a bigger bet because of the 100% match, in this case the lesser % match paid off. Maybe refine to system qualifiers > a certain percentage?
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Post by shrewd on Nov 9, 2019 15:15:30 GMT
Only just seen this shrewd Thank you for posting, unlucky with the first selection but the second won with a 2-2 finish. Will keep an eye on your postings and will try to follow/understand/learn the system. Thanks Pin, anything in particular confuse you? Yeah still testing the water a little, could be a tweak down the line - but it's been a positive start. Think it's just about extending the sample size for a clearer picture. All I know is the only losing legs so far featured Rubin Kazan in both, so that's them on the b**t**rd list. (joke, it's objective - I'm not about to argue against black & white and decide to discriminate vs. certain teams/leagues; trust the process) Red card for the goalless side was likely a significant factor. Opponents did get a man sent off with 24 mins left to play which gave me hope, but by then they were probably more than happy to sit in and shut up shop with their 10. Anyway. Slavia Prague/Teplice tomorrow to land a single & double hopefully. Though in terms of the market, it's the most "unlikely" selection yet. Slavia 11 points clear, +30 goal difference (only 3 conceded, THREE) & drew to Barca midweek, vs. 11th/16 place Teplice who have scored the fourth least fewest in the league with a -7 goal difference ---- that said, the system throws this up, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
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Post by Pindropper on Nov 9, 2019 15:23:08 GMT
Im not a football man really so its still all new to me (obviously i know its 90mins a game and objective is to score and win hahaha)
Ive not sat and looked at any of the xG data yet so cant really say anything kn particular is confusing me.
Theres plenty of data available though, fine tuning your system to what works is best and thats only by recording/trialling results. Good luck!
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Post by shrewd on Nov 9, 2019 15:49:33 GMT
Im not a football man really so its still all new to me (obviously i know its 90mins a game and objective is to score and win hahaha) Ive not sat and looked at any of the xG data yet so cant really say anything kn particular is confusing me. Theres plenty of data available though, fine tuning your system to what works is best and thats only by recording/trialling results. Good luck! Don't worry mate, most every day die hard football men haven't got a clue about xG either. Well, like I said, it's a data analysis that records a player or teams shots/chances whilst considering several variables to determine how likely was it to have scored/conceded. Variables such as the location (most crucial), the angle the pass came from, the shot type (for example, headers will accumulate lower goal probability/xG than a strike across the floor from the same position, by default), how many players were in front of the shot, etc. It's most generally used to get a better picture as to how sustainable a teams form (negative or positive) or a players goal run - or indeed, lack of, is. Basically, football's law of averages, with black and white numbers to back it up. I touched on the location being the main factor. It's common knowledge the clearer cut chances you create or surrender, the likelier you are to score or concede. From the below image we have it split into 6 main zones, ordered from 1 to 6 in order of where you want to shoot from. Zone 1 & 2 are the "ideal" zones; short and central. Shots/chances from here will obviously accumulate the highest xG figures (measured 0-100; 100 probably being a ball sat dead on the goal-line with the keeper in a coma; I've yet to see a 100/100 xG chance - penalties have a 0.75/100 probability for reference). The 6 zones; wide, far and acute - will accumulate lottery-esque xG figures. Any team who scores from here should fine their keeper a weeks wages.  A team or player who's under-performing underlying xG numbers are generally creating/getting chances in the 1/2/3 zones, but for whatever reason, aren't scoring. Whether that's due to superman keepers, slack finishing or rotten luck - they're not scoring as many as the quality of their chances/chance creation suggests they should. Conversely, a team who are "over-performing" xGA (expected goals against) are generally getting out of jail a lot, and surrender (even) more high quality chances than their goals-against stat suggests. My logic is if you find 2 teams in the same match who are have been getting lucky defensively and unlucky offensively according to underlying data, then it has the recipe for goals. |
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Brazilian match comes good.