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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 28, 2020 11:41:10 GMT
A friend told me a method involving two ratings. I have put full ratings side by side and starred the top four in each rating method. Have put price alongside top four. It is suggested to look at any horse who is in top four in both methods, or you could use prices, last run to come to selection. Takes so long to work out, I may do one mor in a minute but think maybe only for bigger races on a Saturday.
2-25 Leopardstown...................................A...............................B
A Plus Tard...........................................379.............................18...............................................WON Allaho...................................................70..............................41 Balko Des Flos......................................110............................640*...............125-1 DELTA WORK........................................620*..........................640*..................6-1.................fell Easy Game...........................................110............................310 Fakir D'oudairies...................................284............................310 Jett.....................................................237............................670*................125-1 Kemboy...............................................673*..........................110....................10-1.......................2nd Melon....................................................93............................410*..................25-1.......................3rd Minella Indo.........................................170............................310 Presenting Percy...................................366............................110 Samcro...............................................412*...........................310....................10-1 Tornado Flyer......................................138.............................410*............. .....12-1 Tout Est Permis...................................460*...........................244................ .....66-1
So DELTA WORK 6-1 would appear to be the selection but I think I would also have a quid on the top one in each Jett 125-1 ew and Kemboy 10-1 ew. Lets see how it fares!
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 28, 2020 12:07:20 GMT
1-15 Leopardstown...............................A....................B
BACARDYS........................................311*.................510*...........12-1 BAPAUM..........................................366*.................380*...........18-1 Flooring Porter.................................162..................460*...........12-1....................WON French Dynamite..................................74..................180 Fury Road.......................................251*.................310.............2-1 Sire Du Burlais.................................180..................344*............7-4.......................3rd The Storyteller.................................640*..................78.............6-1.......................2nd
Two in both columns here so how to divide?..Do both each way as both same trainer and on form Bapaum is better of atw weights with Bacardys but Racing Post rating are the other way around...maybe you can think of something better ?
Can see a bit of promise, maybe it is better in handicaps.
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 28, 2020 16:03:17 GMT
OK so there is racing on telly again tomorrow so have picked a small handicap.
2-05 Newbury...................A................B
CH'TIBELLO.....................460*.............640*...........4-1....................None Runner Kateson.........................82*.............150*...........4-1.......................None Runner Calva D'Auga....................55...............60......................Won Nordic Combined.................48...............70 The Cob.........................49...............60.........................3rd Azzerti.........................78...............70 Good Man Pat....................52...............60.....................2nd
Well well, one of my favourite horses is way ahead, horses have made fools of both man and beast but on regular post I am doing to recover last 2 days losses !!
With the two main ones none runners there is little between the res but if you had to bet you may have gone for azzerti
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Post by Pindropper on Dec 28, 2020 16:24:13 GMT
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 29, 2020 21:32:38 GMT
Calculations Pindropper calculations that is why bit of a hassle.
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 29, 2020 22:11:01 GMT
Wednesday 30/12 No races worthy of rating really as all pretty low class stuff so just to keep hand in has done one worth a little more than general 2-40 Taunton...................1.................2 Will Victory...................89*...............120..........6-1......................2nd On My Command..................=.................40 Perfect Myth...................37................150*.........5-6.....................3rd....big market drifter Talking About You..............63................110.................................Won..3yo improving Marta Des Mottes...............67.................70
The favourite has won this five years out of eight. This looks good for the improving perfect Myth, but, no 3yo has won this in the last eight years.What is going through my mind is to back Perfect Myth with a stake saver on Will Victory.
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 30, 2020 14:24:37 GMT
Done two races for the last day of the year. 2-00 Lingfield..............1...................2 Via Serendipity............136.................230*.....7-2.........................2nd War Glory...................238*................120......5-1 Fox Duty Free...............63..................70...................................WON Pactolus.....................101..................70 Crownthorpe.................93..................50
2-05 Punchestown Any Second Now...........139.................460......................None Runner Backhason...................101.................250 (odds on)...............................won City Island..................299*...............1830*......7-2 Dallas Des Picton..........268...................80.............................................3rd Darasso......................225.................360........................None Runner Scarpeta.......................81..................80...............................................2nd
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Post by loansharkuk on Dec 31, 2020 11:01:45 GMT
New Years day....right, we now have a race that this could work well on. Different people have different views and need to attack from different angles.Some say only study first six in forecast betting, so have shown them Some sweat by Racing Post Rating, so have shown them and some like Timeform so have shown them..and of course my A and B ratings where we consider the top 4 ,hopefully to come up with a selection.
1-55 Mussleburgh..............A.......B.......6 in bf.......RPR..........TF stars Voix Du Reve.................106*...460*.........x.........150*..........3..................................................2nd 20-1 (head) Miranda.........................80*...100*.........2..........144*..........4*.......................4-1 Caius Marcius..................96*....90..........x...........142*..........3 Proschema.....................61*...460*.........1..........135*..........5*...................... 7-2.........None Runner Swaffam Bulbeck.............49......80..........x...........132...........3.......................................None Runner Rosie and Millie................29....230*.........4..........131...........3......................................................3rd 7-2 Golden Town....................60.....38..........x...........128...........2........................................None Runner Blakeney Point.................35.....40..........x...........121...........3...............Won 22-1 Manucci...........................37.....50..........5..........115...........3 Raymond.........................38.....40..........3..........121...........4* Hazzar...............................x.....40..........6..........122...........3
So, on my basic system it would be between Voix, Miranda, and Proshema by looking at first six in betting only, a very different story. If you put in RPR You finish up with Proschema and Miranda, so overall it seems to come down to PROSCHEMA and MIRANDA and if you add all ratings up (never done this before) for those two you get PROSCHEMA 661 and Miranda 328...last bit is unprofessional but gives us a single selection.
So the bet is PROSCHEMA................However, I see this morning that this is a none runner which overall leaves us with MIRANDA at 11-4 although I will also do VOIX DU REVE at 16-1 each way as it is the best on my ratings alone. (0900am)
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 1, 2021 9:58:59 GMT
Still New Years morning...another race but lot of runners so just considering qualifiers.......
3-05 Musselburgh...............A...........B
RED RISK......................151*........160*.......6-1 Guarde La Victoire.............54.........150*......17-2 ROMAIN DE SENOM...............130*........600*.......9-2..............WON Bigmartre.....................177*........100.......25-1 Cool Mix.......................93.........280*...... 4-1...............3rd Voix D'Eau....................132*.........90.......28-1
So the two that qualify on basic system by being in top four on both rating is Red Risk and Romain De Senom....Red has a higher RPR to Romain but Romain is the RP Nap...Both only have three stars with Timeform....Red is ridden by a jockey whom Nicholls seems to be pushing (40%) but Romain is back at a winnable mark, at the right distance and was unfortunate to have been brought down last time at Cheltenham, so..... of the two unners I will go ROMAIN DE SENOM with a saver on Red Risk
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 2, 2021 8:49:31 GMT
Saturday 2nd January 2021 A bit of astand out bet today.
3-15 Ayr..................A..........B.......................................MEETING ABANDONED.
Taking Risks............400*........280*...........7-4 Late Romantic...........270.........140 Strong Economy...........62..........70 Sutton Manor.............90.........100 Manetti..................52..........30
No clear selection in this race. 3-00 Sandown................................A.................B MINELLACELEBRATION..................136..............670**.........18-1 Crosspark....................................177..............220*.............7-1.......2nd Gold Present................................314*............150.............22-1 VALTOR.......................................605**..........150...............6-1 Sametegal...................................174..............390*...........10-1 Potters Legend.............................145..............220*.............6-1 Sir Ivan.......................................504*............140.............18-1............3rd Jepeck.........................................343*............120.............14-1 Regal Flow...................................185..............220*............14-1
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 2, 2021 16:27:15 GMT
To keep hand in, best race I can see is with Plumpton Plodders...................Sunday 03-01-2021
2-25 Plumpton........................A.............B Like The Sound......................126*..........70 DEFI DES CARRES..................120*.........170*.......9-1 Salty Boys...............................xx...........250*.......5-1 DAWSON CITY.......................127*.........120*.......9-1 Bermeo...................................45..........120*
Looking at it the are two that qualify both ratings and one that I am considering as being ridden by jockey and not apprentice for first time for the stable. Hoping this is not an error but I am discounting the qualifier Dawson City as I think it is being primed for a race at Exeter next month which leaves the one qualifier DEFI DES CARRES but having small saver on SALTY BOYS for reasons previously stated.
Had a look at a small Irish race and though..how do the ratings go so..Entire field with top three mine, OR and RPR starred. 2-50 Fairyhouse.....................A.............B............OR............RPR Salsaretta ...........................175........450*.........148*..........157..............15-8 Shattered Love.....................304*......540*.........152*..........172*..............9-4........none runner Augusta Gold.........................90........590*.........139............159................7-1................................WON 10-1 Cabaret Queen.....................405*......180...........149*..........163*...............4-1 Ellie Mac...............................90........170...........125............144...............33-1 Miss Pernickety..................... X........ ..70.............X..............130.............100-1.......none runner Moyhenna............................365*.....240............145............162*..............7-1....................................2nd As you can see many variations but, one horse is in top three in all four ratings. SHATTERED LOVE at 9-4
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Post by Pindropper on Jan 3, 2021 12:31:38 GMT
Does Caberet Queen beat the Mullins Fav now Shattered Love a NR?
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 3, 2021 13:49:00 GMT
Does Caberet Queen beat the Mullins Fav now Shattered Love a NR? Leaves the race a bit indecisive. Think if I were going to replace the bet, which I might I would just revert to my ratings and go Augusta Gold.
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Post by Pindropper on Jan 3, 2021 14:56:54 GMT
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 4, 2021 16:36:28 GMT
Just had a look at Saturdays Welsh National...these are the ones of interest
Calypso Collonges..........74......670................33-1........pu JOE FARRELL...............648......670................40-1........pu The Hollow Ginge...........61.....1130...............20-1.......u/r Truckers Lodge............457......150................10-1................7th VIEX LION ROUGE........388......670................20-1.......10th YALA ENKI...................275......670................12-1................3rd
Will probably put a bit more on one later but at the moment I have done them all each way with a little more on the two shorter priced ones.
Friday..... Have decided that IF I were to think of doing just ONE horse it would be VIEX LION ROUGE each way.
Well that didn't work out too well.
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 8, 2021 13:02:50 GMT
Another fair race on Saturdays Welsh National Card.
12-17 Chepstow.................A.................B.................
CEEPAGE........................229*..............590*.............3-1.............................WON Esprit Du Large................193*..............230*.............7-2 Gala Ball.........................109*..............180*.............7-2
These are the three top rated on both. CEEPAGE is top of the top on both so is the selection...additionally the trainer does very very well in this race.
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 9, 2021 17:28:19 GMT
Sunday have picked a race to keep hand in, however just rated the first six in betting forecast as this is where most likely winners come from.
3-10 Exeter....................A...........B Ask Me Early.................70...........75............5-1............none runner Fortescue.....................60...........70............9-1 DANCING SHADO........144*........120*..........16-1 ** Hold That Taught..........11...........75............7-1.............none runner Sandy's Boy.................12...........44...........11-1 Muckamore..................11...........43............9-2
DANCING SHADOW is clear on both so has to be an each way bet at the price.(Prices are current)
Should have rated the whole race. None of these were even placed.
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 10, 2021 21:31:58 GMT
Monday 11th.....Just one race even worth looking at and only four runners worthrating.
2-20 Hereford............A..........B
KAPGARRY................84..........140.......10-1 Dusky Lark.............103............90.........9-1 Flagrant Delitep........42............40.......11-8.............WON Volcano...................38............40.........4-1
Looks like a false favourite, but lets see. Looks like Kapgarry or Dusky Lark but looking at trainers etc have to side with KAPGARRY each way.
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 14, 2021 17:32:27 GMT
Friday Jan 15th....keeping hand in...getting ready for saturday
3-10 Newcastle.................A............B.........TF........SP.......RPR
Oo Da Lally..................40............40..........3..........82.......102*............5/4..................1st..4-6 FAYATHAAN.................43*...........50*........5*........85*......101.............2/1.............3rd 5-2 Falcon Brook................34............50*.........4.........74........101.............4-1 Majestic Tejaan............27............30...........2.........48..........94.............8-1.............2nd 16-1
A very close race that is probably too close to call but on the face of it FAYATHAAN at 2-1 looks to have best chance.
....and it was very neck and a head
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Post by loansharkuk on Jan 15, 2021 21:37:07 GMT
Saturday 16th
1-25 Lingfiels
Fox Power...........7500.......070....4-1 Mission Boy..........125.......450...14-1
Mr Hannon's FOX POWER is miles clear on A ratings so must be the bet with a little saver on Mission Boy
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