Cheltenham chat 2023

The Irish and the championship races.


ChaMPion hurdLe


THE order in Ireland was on the cusp of change when they lined up for the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, when State Man was sent off as favourite just in front of Honeysuckle. And that change was confirmed when State Man won, making all the running and coming almost five lengths clearof the remarkable mare.
Honeysuckle was gallant in defeat, she kept on willingly to retain the runner-up spot, but she just couldn’t close the gap on her younger rival. State Man was only a year old when Honeysuckle won her Point-to-Point.The crowds assembled before the race to send Honeysuckle and Rachael Blackmore out onto Leopardstown’s racecourse for the final time, and they packed deep at the runner-up’s spot when they came back in to give her the reception that she deserved. Whatever the final act is now, whether or not this was it, her achievements have been staggering, a glittering career, expertly managed by Henmore. Together, they have been box office, they have been a flagbearer for racing for years.

state Man will almost probably have to improve again if he is going to beat the monster that is Constitution Hill, but there is every chance that he will improve. Last year’s County Hurdle winner, Willie Mullins’ horse was better in winning the Matheson Hurdle than he was in winning the Morgiana Hurdle,and he was better again in winning the Irish Champion Hurdle.He made all the running, and that was new. It added an extra arrow to his quiver for the Champion Hurdle battle. His jumping was slick too. Heis developing into a top class hurdler, and he is acontender for sure.

Vauban was just over four lengths behind State Man in the Matheson Hurdle, and he got no closer tohis stable companion in the Irish Champion Hurdle.It can be difficult for last year’s juveniles when they step into open company. Vauban is going to have to improve again if he is going to be a Champion Hurdle contender, but he was the outstanding juvenile last year, and he deserves his place in a Champion Hurdle line-up



Queen Mother ChaMPion Chase


JUST when you think that there is clarity in the Champion Chase pool, along comes an event (say:race) that muddies the waters again.Edwardstone won the Tingle Creek, then unseated in the Desert Orchid Chase. Energumene won the Hilly Way, then got beaten in the Clarence House Chase. Edwardstone beat Energumene inthat Clarence House Chase, but he couldn’t beat Editeur du Gite.Blue Lord looked like a two-and-a-half-miler, a Ryanair Chase horse, when he won the Clonmel Oil Chase. Then he won the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase and, in a heartbeat, he was a Champion Chase contender. Then he got beaten by Gentleman de Mee in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, and you scratched your head again. energumene is the reigning Champion Chaser.

True, it was an unusual Champion Chase that he won last year, run on soft ground with Shishkin pulling up,but we knew that he was top class even before then,he had only been beaten once over fences beforehand, and that was in that epic duel with Shishkin at Ascot. He looked as good as ever in winning the
Hilly Way Chase on his debut this season, and he will obviously be a massive player again. Blue Lord will have to bounce back from his Dublin Chase defeat if he is going to be involved.He does have almost eight lengths to find with Edwardstone on their running in the Arkle last season, but he looked like an improved horse when he won the Clonmel Oil, and again when he dropped back down to an extended two miles over Christmas. Maybe he was just taken out of his
comfort zone by Gentleman de Mee, and he still hasthe option to step back up in trip for the Ryanair. There is a chance, however, that gentleman de Mee has been under-rated in all of this. It was understandable that he was allowed go off at a fairly big price for the Dublin Chase, given that he had been well beaten in all three runs this season before then. But it may be that he is simply a spring horse.

His improvement last season all came in the spring, on spring ground.He won his beginners’ chase at Thurles last February by 34 lengths, before winning the Grade 3 Flyingbolt Chase by 16. Then he went to Aintree and beat Edwardstone on merit in the Grade 1 Maghull Chase. Edwardstone may have under-performed a little that day, after winning the Arkle, but only a little. And back in third was Third Time Lucki, who had,like Gentleman de Mee, skipped Cheltenham and gone straight to Aintree, after finishing a close-up second behind Edwardstone in the Kingmaker Chase two months earlier.Gentleman de Mee was well beaten when sent off as favourite for Galopin des Champs’ Martin Pipe Hurdle on his only run at Cheltenham, and that is in the back of your mind, but he is a more mature horse now and, on normal Champion Chase-type ground, he could run a big race.

Arkle trophy


EL FabioLo looked very good in winning the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown in February. That was a deep race, some of the best two-mile novice chasers in the country took each other on, nobody blinked, and the pace was frenetic from flag-fall.Willie Mullins’ horse was able to easily lie up just behind the pace Dysart Dynamo set, a pace that took some of his rivals out of their respective comfort zones. They got from the first fence to the seventh fence in a time that was around seven seconds faster than the time that it took the runners in the two-mile-one-furlong handicap to cover the same ground later in the day, which is significant, even if the rain had got into the ground a little by the time the handicap was run.With the exception of a mistake at the fourth last fence, El Fabiolo’s jumping was good. He moved up on the outside of his stable companion on the run around the home turn, hit the front on the run to the final fence, and careered away up the run-in to win by 10 lengths.Simon Munir & Isaac Souede’s horse was a highclass novice hurdler last season. He didn’t make it to Cheltenham, he only won his maiden on New Year’s Day and he was injured in transit, so didn’t run at the Dublin Racing Festival last year, but he did make it to Aintree, where he ran Jonbon to a neck in the Top Novices’ Hurdle. He might have beaten Nicky Henderson’s horse too had he not made a slight mistake at the final flight, and
a re-match between the two over fences should light up the opening day of the Festival. There is every chance that El Fabiolo will exact his revenge.appreciate it came up short in the Irish Arkle,but he remains a big player. Winner of the 2021 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, he missed most of last season, he made his seasonal return in the Champion Hurdle, Willie Mullins deciding to keep his
novice status over fences intact for this season.It was an astute decision too, because Appreciate It was impressive in winning his first two races over fences, and he ran well for a long way in the Irish Arkle.No nine-year-old has won the Arkle since Danish
Flight in 1988, but there have only been eight runners aged older than eight in the Arkle in the last 10 years, only three sent off at shorter than 20/1 (Overturn, Rock On Ruby and Royal Caviar),and Articulum finished third in 2019. Also, Appreciate It is a lightly-raced nine-year-old. He has raced just three times over fences and just four times over hurdles. Don’t let his age put you off.dysart dynamo enhanced his reputation with his run in the Irish Arkle, even though he faded in the end and finished only fourth. He likes to get on with things obviously, but he has been more tractable in his two runs over fences than was usually the case over hurdles and, if he can settle just a little bit better through the early stages of his races, he could come forward again. He will be a player in the Arkle, but he might be an even bigger player in the Maghull Chase at Aintree, at a track that should be ideally suited to his aggressive tactics. Final orders has been a revelation since he started jumping fences. Gavin Cromwell’s horse is bred and built for the Flat, but he has now won his last five chases, including the two-mile handicap at Leopardstown on Irish Arkle day, and his new rating of 149 leaves him just about within range.


turners noViCes' Chase


MightY Potter was mighty impressive in winning the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse in early December, and he was even more impressive in winning the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival.Gordon Elliott’s horse was a high-class novice hurdler last season, he won the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, and he rounded off last season by winning the Grade 1 two-mile Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. But he is already a better chaser than hurdler, his jumping at Leopardstown was very good, and he came right away from his rival to win with plenty in hand. He is the correct favourite for the Turners Chase. Banbridge could step up in trip now and go for the Turners. Winner of the Martin Pipe Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, Joseph O’Brien’s horse jumped really well in winning his beginners’ chase over two and a half miles on his chasing bow
at Gowran Park in October. He proved that he had plenty of pace when he went to Cheltenham in November and won the Arkle Trial, but his staying-on second to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle suggested that he could be even better over two and a half miles or even three. He could only finish third behind Mighty Potter in the Drinmore, but that was on soft ground and, in a better-ground Turners Chase, he could get closer.Journey With Me is also a player. Henry de Bromhead’s horse probably would have finished placed in the Ballymore Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham had he not come down at the final flight. He kept on well to beat Brides Hill and Flame Bearer in winning his beginners’ chase at Naas just before Christmas, and time may prove that he did really well to run Impervious to a half a length in a Grade 3 contest at Punchestown in January. The Robcour gelding is a hugely likeable horse, and he should continue to progress.


Brown advisory novices’ Chase

THE talk was of the National Hunt Chase for gerri Colombe, and that made sense. He’s all about stamina, we thought. Soft conditions and a distance of ground. Then he went to Sandown and won the Scilly Isles Chase.It was good to soft at Sandown on Scilly Isles
Chase day, no softer. And, over two and a half miles on Sandown’s park course, he had the pace to beat Balco Coastal and Thunder Rock, with Monmiral well behind.That made Gordon Elliott’s horse even more exciting than we thought he was. He’s still unbeaten. One Point-to-Point, two bumpers, two hurdle races, three chases now, and he has won them all. He won a novices’ hurdle over two miles
and seven furlongs at Thurles last January, and you have to think that he will be even better when he steps up to three miles and beyond over fences. He isn’t qualified for the National Hunt Chase yet,so it looks like the Brown Advisory all the way, and
he will be a massive player in that. The Willie Mullins team for the Brown Advisory is not set yet, but then, you can copy and paste
that a few times. (The Willie Mullins team for the [add race title here] is not set yet.). It was interesting when the champion trainer nominated this race as sir gerhard’s potential target after the Jeremy gelding won his beginners’ chase at Gowran Park
on Thyestes Chase day over two miles.He won nicely in the end, a significant mistake at the third fence notwithstanding, but, a potential Arkle contender at the start of the season, his jumping probably lacked the slickness of a two-mile champion. Winner of his only Point-to-Point, he stepped out in trip at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and won the Ballymore Hurdle, and he could
step out in trip even further at this year’s.Ramillies and Gaillard du Mesnil are both in the Brown Advisory mix, although, both owned by Marie Donnelly and trained by Willie Mullins, it makes sense that they target different races. And if Gaillard du Mesnil goes for the National Hunt Chase, ramillies deserves to take his chance here.The Shantou gelding kept good company in bumpers and in novices’ hurdles, he contested the champion bumpers at Cheltenham and at Punchestown, and he ran in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle
at Cheltenham and in the Irish Mirror Hurdle at Punchestown last season.Winner of just one bumper and just one novices’hurdle, he probably put up a career-best performance in winning his beginners’ chase on his debut this season. It was interesting that Paul Townend chose to ride him that day in front of his better-fancied stable companion Tenzing, and he put up an impressive performance, jumping well and winning with more in hand than the two-and-a-quarterlength winning margin. He passed the post first too in a Grade 3 contest at Naas last time, before being demoted and the race awarded to Thedevilscoachman. You could have argued the case either way that day, Thedevilscoachman was definitely impeded, and there shouldn’t be much between them if they meet again.

thedevilscoachman won the Boyne Hurdle last season, and he looked good in winning his beginners’ chase at Galway in October, before falling when beaten in the Drinmore Chase. Noel Meade’s horse is a classy individual, and if the ground happened to come up soft for the Brown Advisory Chase, as it did last year, he would go there with a big chance.

nationaL hunt Chase

HE RAN five times over fences last season and gaillard du Mesnil finished third on all five occasions. Third in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, third in the Brown Advisory Chase, third in the Irish Grand National. That left him a novice still going into this season, and, second in the Drinmore Chase on his seasonal debut, he finally got off the mark over fences when he won the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.He reverted to type in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival this year,finishing third again behind Mighty Potter and Adamantly Chosen, but the intermediate trip of that race is almost certainly too sharp for him, and he should be much happier stepping up again in trip at Cheltenham. If he steps all the way up to three miles and six furlong for the National Hunt Chase, just one furlong longer than the Irish Grand National trip over which he ran a big race last April,with Patrick Mullins for company, he should be involved.

Chemical energy beat Mahler Mission by 61 lengths when they met in a novices’ chase at Cheltenham in October, but Mahler Mission obviously didn’t run his race that day, and there may not be much between them if they clash again in the National Hunt Chase. Gordon Elliott’s horse looked good in winning that race, the race that the trainer won with Galvin in 2020 before sending him back to Cheltenham almost five months later and winning the National Hunt Chase. Chemical Energy could only finish fourth in the Grade 3 chase at Naas in which Ramillies and Thedevilscoachman fought out the finish but, four for two in bumpers and over hurdles and
over fences, he is a talented individual who should appreciate the step up in trip.Mahler Mission is also a talented individual, as
he proved when he won his beginners’ chase at Navan at the end of January. John McConnell’s horse’s jumping was really accurate that day, and he made all the running, coming home 10 lengths clear of Tenzing. Directly after that race, his trainer said that the National Hunt Chase was his probable target.

@pulse I bought the cheltenham festival guide today and noticed a two of the tipsters have selected him as there bet in the race. They are hoping the ground dont get soft as that will be against him even though he finished 4th last year.

Good to soft, soft in places with it drying out quickly is my tuppence.

I have nothing picked and small stakes for me this year as ive been "roughed about" recently so very cautious of Cheltenham and keeping losses to a minimum, only betting in 3-4 races each day and just enjoying the action.

I will of course take a look at what the handicapper has done to Irish horses and try to spot a few e/w ones. Best of luck to you all next week.

WP Mullins trained Impaire Et Passe will highly likely now line up in the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle (1.30) on day two of next week's Cheltenham Festival came from the 2-1 favourite's racing manager on Friday.

Antony Bromley The way we're thinking is that Dark Raven will run in the Supreme, Impaire Et Passe will go to the Ballymore and Hunters Yarn will take in the County Hurdle. That's the feeling in the camp at the moment.

For me Munir and Souede are obviously taking onboard the advice of WP & not taking on Facile Vega & are more confident against the 6year old unbeaten Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen. Impaire Et Passé is now 2/1 favourite replacing Hermes Allen at the head of the market ..
The Ballymore just got a lot more difficult to decipher .

I don’t envy Cheltenham’s clerk of the course Jon Pullin his job given the forecast for the area over the next few days.

There is a suggestion that frost covers may need to be deployed on Tuesday night given the predicted drop in temperature to -2C or -3C on ground that will have been opened up by the first day’s racing.

Things will get trickier on Thursday, with persistent rain expected – perhaps up to 10mm - with the likelihood that the ground will be at its softest for the Gold Cup on Friday.

if I were having any early bets on Friday’s card I would lean towards the mud lovers and proven stayers, bringing Noble Yeats and Stattler into view for the big one. Both horses have won over marathon trips and appear to handle testing ground.

It’s a long shot, but one who could outrun his odds of 50/1 is Royal Pagaille. The nine-year-old has run better than his finishing position suggests in the last two Gold Cups when the ground was quicker than his ideal. He is relatively lightly-raced for his age and he jumps well.

I expect Three Card Brag to prove popular in the Albert Bartlett earlier in the day. The son of Jet Away is untried at 3m but he is a half-brother to winners over 3m 1f and up to 4m and he has loved the heavy ground in Ireland. He is a lazy sort so could be one to back in-running if you like to play that way.

The news came through today that Threeunderthrufive, owned by the sponsors of the Ultima, worked well in a tongue-tie for Paul Nicholls and will duly be equipped with one on Tuesday.

Charles Byrnes reports that Shoot First, the long-term favourite for the Pertemps on Thursday, sustained a minor injury on Saturday and will miss the race. This leaves Thanksforthehelp a top price of 11/2 at the head of the market.

Facile Vega is a slightly wobbly 9/4 to land the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, with money today for Tahmuras, who will like the easy ground. Saint Roi is attracting interest at 8/1 in the Arkle against the top two while there was support at 20/1 for I Like To Move It in the Champion Hurdle. The bookmakers will be relieved that this race has cut up to seven runners, saving them the each-way terms on three places.

For some the best race on day one will be the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, with Marie’s Rock just edging Honeysuckle and Epatante as favourite. Mister Coffey is a shade overpriced at 10/1 for the closing NH Chase.