Post by Bitchy on Feb 1, 2023 18:04:02 GMT
Firstly I want to say that I am sorry I have been inactive on the forum for a while now and that was because I started to fall out of love with the game and turned to another passion of mine which is shooting. I have always loved the Cheltenham Festival and even though as stated I fell out of love with the game I started to do a list of Ante-post bets. I put my pen to paper every week and put a list of my my Cheltenham ante-post bets/advice. These go back from 5th December 2022, I will add these slowly over the next couple of days, so I hope you enjoy them. Thanks for reading. please note these were done on the start date of 5/12/22 and as I go along and add the other Ante-post bets they will be up-dated and any N/RS from the first bets/advice given will be amended and make sense.
5th December 2022
My Cheltenham ante-post bets/advice. The jumps season is now in full flow, and we enjoyed a fantastic two days of racing last weekend that saw the superstar mare Honeysuckle finally lose her winning streak.
First, as always, I must take a look at last years Cheltenham Festival [2022] that has been and gone and how my selections performed. I think it best that we start with the highlight of the show, Elimay. A real favourite of mine, she showed just how good she can be on the biggest stage and battled gamely to win at an ante-post price of 8/1. She was eventually sent off the 9/4f, so I found myself some great value. It was great to get a nice win on the board after a couple of hard luck stories and it gave me that all important winner at a nice price. Of course, it didn’t all go my way and despite finding some great value, they just didn’t quite deliver on the day.
When I done last years ante-post bets/advice , I alluded to how important it was that the horses put up made the festival, out of the 12 bets, I had only two that either didn’t run or ran in another race. One of these was L’Homme Presse, put up in the Turners’ Novice’s Chase but the owners opted for the three-mile race instead, which of course he won. To rub further salt into the wound, he beat Ahoy Senor in doing so, who was put up at 13/2 but finished second behind the Venetia Williams-trained horse. It could have been quite the day on the novice chase front had they stuck to their original plans!
That wasn’t the end of the hard luck stories as Adamantly Chosen, put up at 16/1, went off 11/2 but unfortunately couldn’t get the job done despite travelling well in the Martin Pipe. Dunboyne was a 14/1 shot when put up but could only manage a distant 16th despite going off 7/1. Finally, Thyme Hill was just outdone by a super front running rides by Danny Mullins on Flooring Porter. Put up at 8/1, we got a small each way returns but it wasn’t quite the big one that could have been. Overall, it was great to see so many give us a run for my money and of course I would have liked that extra winner to make it a memorable four days. However, there were plenty of positives to take and following a similar system, I’m confident we can make a nice profit!
Last year I gave a comprehensive review of the action that had come so far in the season but this year I really want to focus on the races I put the bets up in. We can sometimes get caught up in trying to spot every horse that may end up at Cheltenham but often it helps to find one or two horses and unpack the race with those in mind. By doing it this way you also get a look back at the potential runners and how they have fared so far, so it’s the best of both worlds, without boring anyone too much with my ramblings!
The first race to focus on this week is the Brown Advisory Novices` Chase. The market is currently headed by Minella Cocooner, trained by Willie Mullins and owned by David Bobbet. He ran two excellent races on his way to the Festival last year before being beaten by stablemate The Nice Guy. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing him this year as he picked up an injury, but Minella Cocooner did look the obvious selection before any of those in the market had jumped a fence. This brings us nicely onto Gowran Park back in November, which saw a host of novice chasers face off against one another. There was strong market support for the six-year-old but he was just pipped by stablemate Classic Getaway. I was quite taken by both the winner and the second but think the second is the one worth siding with in March.
Hurdling back-form is key to finding the winner of the three miler, as it is sometimes more affectionally known, and this lad has it in abundance. He was successful in the Nathaniel Lacy hurdle, a Grade One run over two miles and six furlongs and was subject to another one of Danny Mullins excellent rides. He of course then finished twice behind The Nice Guy, but I doubt he will run into anything of that ilk in March. While they perhaps would have liked him to win his chase debut, I don’t think he lost anything in defeat and will have learnt a lot for that run. The usual hood was left off, which would certainly help him settle and the step up to a more familiar three miles would surely play to his strengths. The ground is rarely heavy at the Festival and heavy ground at Gowran has caught many a good horse out. Classic Getaway will clearly make a better chaser than a hurdler, but I’d worry he lacks the class and would fancy Minella Cocooner to turn the tables in four months’ time.
He’s got a few entries around Christmas time, should he win one of those, I think he’d take some stopping in what looks a very open renewal. Of those around him in the market, Gaillard Du Mesnil would be an obvious threat as a second season novice but is a general 3/1 shot for the National Hunt Chase, so looks more likely to end up there if the betting is anything to go by. Gerri Colombe confirmed his promise and is a dark horse in the division, as he may not have reached his potential yet. Three Stripe Life got a bit unlucky in the Drinmore at the weekend and was pulled up by Davy Russell, however he could still go down the Turners’ route and there is more questions than answers surrounding him. In an open looking renewal, 12/1 seems more than a fair price about the Albert Bartlett second and he looks a very solid bet.
Advice:
1pt E/W (Coral):
Brown Advisory Novices Chase – Minella Cocooner @ 12/1
To Be Continued:
5th December 2022
My Cheltenham ante-post bets/advice. The jumps season is now in full flow, and we enjoyed a fantastic two days of racing last weekend that saw the superstar mare Honeysuckle finally lose her winning streak.
First, as always, I must take a look at last years Cheltenham Festival [2022] that has been and gone and how my selections performed. I think it best that we start with the highlight of the show, Elimay. A real favourite of mine, she showed just how good she can be on the biggest stage and battled gamely to win at an ante-post price of 8/1. She was eventually sent off the 9/4f, so I found myself some great value. It was great to get a nice win on the board after a couple of hard luck stories and it gave me that all important winner at a nice price. Of course, it didn’t all go my way and despite finding some great value, they just didn’t quite deliver on the day.
When I done last years ante-post bets/advice , I alluded to how important it was that the horses put up made the festival, out of the 12 bets, I had only two that either didn’t run or ran in another race. One of these was L’Homme Presse, put up in the Turners’ Novice’s Chase but the owners opted for the three-mile race instead, which of course he won. To rub further salt into the wound, he beat Ahoy Senor in doing so, who was put up at 13/2 but finished second behind the Venetia Williams-trained horse. It could have been quite the day on the novice chase front had they stuck to their original plans!
That wasn’t the end of the hard luck stories as Adamantly Chosen, put up at 16/1, went off 11/2 but unfortunately couldn’t get the job done despite travelling well in the Martin Pipe. Dunboyne was a 14/1 shot when put up but could only manage a distant 16th despite going off 7/1. Finally, Thyme Hill was just outdone by a super front running rides by Danny Mullins on Flooring Porter. Put up at 8/1, we got a small each way returns but it wasn’t quite the big one that could have been. Overall, it was great to see so many give us a run for my money and of course I would have liked that extra winner to make it a memorable four days. However, there were plenty of positives to take and following a similar system, I’m confident we can make a nice profit!
Last year I gave a comprehensive review of the action that had come so far in the season but this year I really want to focus on the races I put the bets up in. We can sometimes get caught up in trying to spot every horse that may end up at Cheltenham but often it helps to find one or two horses and unpack the race with those in mind. By doing it this way you also get a look back at the potential runners and how they have fared so far, so it’s the best of both worlds, without boring anyone too much with my ramblings!
The first race to focus on this week is the Brown Advisory Novices` Chase. The market is currently headed by Minella Cocooner, trained by Willie Mullins and owned by David Bobbet. He ran two excellent races on his way to the Festival last year before being beaten by stablemate The Nice Guy. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing him this year as he picked up an injury, but Minella Cocooner did look the obvious selection before any of those in the market had jumped a fence. This brings us nicely onto Gowran Park back in November, which saw a host of novice chasers face off against one another. There was strong market support for the six-year-old but he was just pipped by stablemate Classic Getaway. I was quite taken by both the winner and the second but think the second is the one worth siding with in March.
Hurdling back-form is key to finding the winner of the three miler, as it is sometimes more affectionally known, and this lad has it in abundance. He was successful in the Nathaniel Lacy hurdle, a Grade One run over two miles and six furlongs and was subject to another one of Danny Mullins excellent rides. He of course then finished twice behind The Nice Guy, but I doubt he will run into anything of that ilk in March. While they perhaps would have liked him to win his chase debut, I don’t think he lost anything in defeat and will have learnt a lot for that run. The usual hood was left off, which would certainly help him settle and the step up to a more familiar three miles would surely play to his strengths. The ground is rarely heavy at the Festival and heavy ground at Gowran has caught many a good horse out. Classic Getaway will clearly make a better chaser than a hurdler, but I’d worry he lacks the class and would fancy Minella Cocooner to turn the tables in four months’ time.
He’s got a few entries around Christmas time, should he win one of those, I think he’d take some stopping in what looks a very open renewal. Of those around him in the market, Gaillard Du Mesnil would be an obvious threat as a second season novice but is a general 3/1 shot for the National Hunt Chase, so looks more likely to end up there if the betting is anything to go by. Gerri Colombe confirmed his promise and is a dark horse in the division, as he may not have reached his potential yet. Three Stripe Life got a bit unlucky in the Drinmore at the weekend and was pulled up by Davy Russell, however he could still go down the Turners’ route and there is more questions than answers surrounding him. In an open looking renewal, 12/1 seems more than a fair price about the Albert Bartlett second and he looks a very solid bet.
Advice:
1pt E/W (Coral):
Brown Advisory Novices Chase – Minella Cocooner @ 12/1
To Be Continued: