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Post by Bitchy on Mar 13, 2024 21:13:59 GMT
1:30 Cheltenham – The Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller)
The newest of the novice chases at the meeting, we have now had 13 renewals of the Turners’ and again the Irish appear to have dominated proceedings with nine of the last 13 renewals. Leading fancies Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny will be flying the flag for the British, and the latter is trained by last year’s winning trainer Paul Nicholls. Willie Mullins enjoyed a fine time of it in its early years, landing the spoils four times from 2012 to 2017 and lines up Facile Vega here this year.
Those with a touch of class also perform well in the contest, with eight of the past 13 winners landing a Grade 1 novice hurdle the previous year. Facile Vega is the only horse in the contest to tick this box and was also second in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This also ticks another positive trend in the process, as 11 of the 13 winners of the race had contested a hurdles contest at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival. Iroko won the Martin Pipe at last year’s Festival, whilst Letsbeclearaboutit ran well when fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett.
Back on the class angle, and 11 of the past 13 winners contested a Graded novice chase on their previous start, something Ginny’s Destiny has not took part in at all in his chase career, progressing through the handicap ranks instead (something stablemate Stage Star also did on route to success here last year). Eight of those 11 won in Graded company last time too, and Grade 2 Hampton winner Grey Dawning is the only contender bringing that recent form into the contest. Ten of the 13 did win last time out though, so even if not in Graded company arriving in top order has proved almost essential.
The cream does seem to rise to the top in the Turners’, and this is reinforced with the fact that eight of the past nine winners were rated 151 or higher: just Facile Vega, Ginny’s Destiny, Letsbeclearaboutit and Grey Dawning fitting into this bracket. Experience has also proved key, and only two of the past 13 winners had not run at least three times over fences; a negative trend for Iroko and Zanahyir.
In terms of age, younger horses have tended to dominate with 12 of the last 13 winners aged between six and seven, this seems the sweet spot to focus in on. Those that hail from a typical national hunt background also have the best record in the race with six of the past eight winners having won both a Point-to-Point and a Bumper, although surprisingly no horse in this year’s field fits this trend.
Shortlist
FACILE VEGA
GREY DAWNING
There is one horse who leads the way here on the trends, and it is no surprise to see that it is another Willie Mullins-trained horse in a Grade 1 with FACILE VEGA. A dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles and a former Festival winner, this son of the great Quevega clearly has plenty of class and is held in the upmost regard by the master trainer. An impressive winner on chase debut from smart performer in his own right Inthepocket, he has been rather disappointing on his last two starts in Grade 1 company. The latest of those came when third at the Dublin Racing Festival, but that form was boosted when the top two finished second and third in the Arkle on Tuesday. He doesn’t jump quick enough for two miles, but based on pedigree, is a really interesting proposition stepped up in trip here, as he looks to have been crying for it.
Just below him on the trends is Dan Skelton’s GREY DAWNING, and spirits must be high after the trainer enjoyed a red-letter day on Wednesday. Although beaten by rival Ginny’s Destiny here on his penultimate start, a bad jump at the last halted all momentum, and the way he kept on after that mistake left the impression that he may well should have won. He more than made up for that when a mightily impressive wide-margin winner of the Hampton last time and earned his spot here. Although he may find this trip a little on the short side, the slower ground will help turn this into more of the stamina test he wants.
2:10 Cheltenham – The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Last year’s victor Good Time Jonny added yet another victory to the dominant Irish winning tally and the stats seem to point to another possible Irish success once again. The best of the British hopes looks to be the Twiston-Davies-trained and ridden Cuthbert Dibble. With three victories in a row, he aims to make it four wins on the bounce and will relish the testing ground. He’s won four of his seven career hurdle starts and that ticks one of the major stats boxes.
If you are looking for trainers who do well in this race then Gordon Elliot boasts a great record in the Pertemps, and is set to saddle top-weight Farouk D’alene and Cleatus Poolaw.
Horses who’ve raced a total of ten or fewer times over hurdles have a great record, having won 75% of the last ten renewals.
All of the past 12 winners were eight or younger and the more unexposed types have a good record in the contest, the more senior and seasoned horses don’t tend to do all that well in the Pertemps.
Those two major trends certainly helps to narrow down the sizable field. We’re then left with seven runners in the mix with Cleatus Poolaw, Cuthbert Dibble, Popova, Springwell Bay, Kyntara, Hector Javilex and Monmiral.
Although it would be foolish to rule the UK charge out entirely it’s hard to ignore that seven of the last 8 renewals have been claimed by runners trained in the Emerald Isle. With these three trends outlining the perfect profile to find the race winner we are left with a shortlist of just two runners.
However, if you ignore the potential Irish bias, which would leave just Cleatus Poolaw and Popova, we’ll see which of the remaining British contingent has the best chance.
If it was on the ground conditions alone then Cuthbert Dibble would have very solid claims and if you’re looking for a horse with solid course form, then the Jonjo O’Neill trained Springwell Bay should make any shortlist.
Shortlist
CLEATUS POOLAW
POPOVA
CUTHBERT DIBBLE
SPRINGWELL BAY
CLEATUS POOLAW represents the powerhouse that is Gigginstown. He hasn’t finished outside of the top two in all four of his hurdles starts and as with the aforementioned CUTHBERT DIBBLE is another runner who’ll relish the softer conditions. He shook off his maiden tag at the third time of asking when producing a dominant display to win by eight lengths. He followed that effort up when returning to Naas for his handicap debut. He went off as favourite but could only manage second but did qualify for this race in the process. With not many miles on the clock he has got plenty of room to progress and further improvement looks likely, especially over this extended trip.
We saw trainer Henry De Bromhead claim victory in the Supreme on the opening day and the Champion Chase today, and the yard are set to send out POPOVA. Partnered by Rachael Blackmore, the seven-year-old has snuck into the race off a low weight. She is the only other runner in the race that’s managed to fulfil all the trend requirements. Perhaps had too much to do when fourth in a Pertemps qualifier at Punchestown last time out and as long as her jumping holds up, is a horse that could go well at a bigger price.
As mentioned earlier CUTHBERT DIBBLE is on the hunt for a fourth win in succession and he will adore this softer ground. A ‘mud lover’ who is unbeaten in his two handicaps so far and looks a horse on the up.
Despite having to carry a sizable weight, SPRINGWELL BAY has gone well in three previous Cheltenham outings, albeit none at the festival. A third in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial here back in November 2022 was followed by victory when next lining up at Cheltenham last November. His most recent run at the home of UK jumps racing resulted in him finishing fourth over three miles on New Year’s Day.
2.50 Cheltenham – The Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1)
The trends are all about previous wins in this one. All 16 of the winners of the Ryanair Chase since it became a Grade 1 race have previously won over a minimum of 2m4f in the careers before running here. This could potentially rule out Fil Dor, the only one of the 11 without success over that trip, in fact he has struggled whenever going above 2m1f in his career. 12 of those last 16 winners also had a previous Grade 1 success on their resume which applies to all of this year’s big names, including Banbridge, Stage Star, Envoi Allen, Conflated and Capodanno. Protektorat and Ahoy Senor both get a point here as well.
Previous Cheltenham success would appear to be a must as well with 15 of the last 19 winners having a previous win at Cheltenham. All of our field bar Hitman, Fil Dor and Conflated hit this particular trend. 13 of the past 16 winners have previously won at this festival and only two of this year’s field have failed to do so, those being Capodanno and Ga Law.
This has very much been a race for French-bred horses in the past. In fact, all of the last ten winners were French-bred. Bad news then for the well-fancied duo of Banbridge and Stage Star, while Capodanno and last year’s winner Stage Star hit this trend. When looking at trainers here there is only one name worth mentioning. Willie Mullins has always done well in this race with the Irish trainer winning five of the last eight renewals of the Ryanair. He has just the one entry this year, Capodanno.
14 of the last 15 winners of this contest were aged between seven and nine. Good news for the bulk of our field but Envoi Allen is just a year too old as is Conflated while Fil Dor is still too young to fit into this bracket. Finally, the market is a tremendous guide in this race with 17 of the last 19 runners being in the top three of the betting. At the time of writing those three this year are Stage Star, Envoi Allen and Banbridge.
Shortlist
BANBRIDGE
CAPODANNO
ENVOI ALLEN
STAGE STAR
When looking at the trends it is a tie at the top between BANBRIDGE and CAPODANNO. The former has been well-supported in the betting and comes into this contest looking to complete the hattrick with previous successes in a Grade 1 Novice Chase at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting in April and returning with a good success in a Kempton Grade 2 in January, form that has been boosted with the runner-up, Pic D’Orhy landing the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in emphatic style on his next start. Despite preferring a quicker surface than is expected, he is a young progressive horse with little miles on the clock and is already a Cheltenham Festival winner. The latter has been trained by the clear star trainer here in Willie Mullins, who can do little wrong this week, and looked most impressive when taking the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase here in January. That was over further though, and the step back in trip may not be as suitable, but he clearly has plenty of class now back on the right track.
ENVOI ALLEN and STAGE STAR are tied for second, just one point behind, and round out a closely matched shortlist. Henry De Bromhead’s ten-year-old won this last year, as well as having two other Cheltenham Festival victories to his name, and just misses out by being a year too old. He put up a strong second in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in November when last seen though behind Gerri Colombe and goes extremely well when fresh. STAGE STAR won the Turners here last year under an enterprising Harry Cobden ride but was pulled up last time out on heavy ground. His impressive, lofty weight success in the Paddy Power Gold Cup was one of a smart performer though; Paul Nicholls has given him a break here and the champion trainer is adept at peaking his top-level horses for the big day.
3:30 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1)
When winning his first Stayers’ Hurdle in 2021, Flooring Porter became the seventh second-season hurdler to win the race in the space of eight years so when focusing on a new winner of the contest, last season’s novices seem a good place to start. Of all the winners this century who have won the race just once, only three of those were not in their second season over hurdles. Just two in this year’s field fit into this bracket, Buddy One and Crambo.
Ex-flat horses have a particularly good record in the Stayers’ Hurdle, with only two hurdles jumped in the final seven furlongs on the New course, the track suits such horses. However, rather surprisingly, we don’t have any horse of that profile lining up in 2024, although Buddy One was beaten twice on the level over the summer in maidens at Roscommon and Killarney.
With so many multiple winners of the race, it goes without saying that form at the track is a positive. 16 of the past 27 winners of the race had won or placed at the Festival previously. Last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais added his name to this list last year, having landed a pair of Pertemps Finals in 2020 and 2021. Flooring Porter and Paisley Park are of course former winners of the race, whilst Sir Gerhard is a winner of both the Champion Bumper and the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (now the Gallagher). Ahead of his first win in 2021, Flooring Porter was the first Stayers’ Hurdle winner since Baracouda in 2002 to be successful with no prior Cheltenham experience, a feat Crambo will be bidding to emulate for Fergal O’Brien.
Back to Sire Du Berlais, and with the likes of Baracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s, and Flooring Porter all winners of successive renewals, last year’s winner of the race has an exemplary record. On the other hand, those horses beaten in the previous season’s Stayers’ Hurdle have a poor record and five of those beaten last year return in 2024, including all of the next four home behind the winner.
Building on the point of course form, and the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day here at Cheltenham has proved a successful stepping-stone. Eight of the past 17 winners had contested the Cleeve Hurdle on their last start, including four of the last nine, so it has very much been a key pointer. This year, the race was won by the Irish raider Noble Yeats, who fended off the fast-finishing Paisley Park in a thrilling finish. Dashel Drasher put in a valiant effort from the front before fading into fourth, with Champ just short head behind in fifth. Both Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar had climbed through the handicap ranks earlier in the season and had contested the Betfair ‘Serial Winners’ Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November, the former a winner of that race. Crambo was an eye-catcher in the race when rattling home late into third from a mark of 139.
In terms of recent form, 20 of the past 24 winners had recorded a top two finish on their latest start, although that is something last year’s winner did not achieve prior to his success. Again he was beaten in the Boyne Hurdle this year, finishing seventh, whilst the likes of Buddy One and Home By The Lee also have to bounce back from below-par efforts. Four of the past ten winners arrived on the back of a break, not racing since Christmas, or even earlier with Penhill a winner on his first start of the season for Willie Mullins in 2018. Plenty of this year’s field fall into this category, including the favourite Teahupoo, who has been put away since landing the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at the start of December.
Despite last year’s shock result, rated 152, we have still had five winners during the past nine years rated in the 160s on official BHA ratings. There is just one such horse set to lineup in the field this year, and that is Gordon Elliott’s Teahupoo.
Last year’s winner was the oldest since Crimson Embers all the way back in 1986 and was in fact the first double digit aged winner since then. During the past 34 renewals, there were only three nine-year-olds that were successful and therefore the focus is on those aged between six and eight. This year, the field is incredibly old in the Stayers’ Hurdle, with just three of the 13 aged eight or younger and the average age standing at 9.5!
British-bred runners boast a fine record in this contest, from a relatively small pool of runners. During the past 20 years, there have been seven British-bred winners from just 47 runners and in the last two renewals there has been just one representative, and they have each finished runner-up. Buddy One and Dashel Drasher are the two British-bred horses to line up this year, with the latter looking to go one better than his fine effort in the race last year.
Shortlist
TEAHUPOO
CRAMBO
BUDDY ONE
At the top of the shortlist, we have two horses sharing top spot on the trends and the first of those is last year’s third, TEAHUPOO. Gordon Elliott’s charge travelled strongly into the contest last year but was perhaps unlucky as the runner-up Dashel Drasher drifted into his path in the business end of things, forcing him to switch out. He rallied home strongly to be beaten less than a length and may have even got up to win with a clear run. Just like last year then, when he lowered the colours of Honeysuckle, he got the better of a smart rival in the Hatton’s Grace, outstaying former Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe. He has since been put away with this race in mind, which looks a wise decision, as he is eight from eight in his career when arriving on the back of a break of 80 days of longer. It is easy to forget he is still just seven-years-old, and still has scope for further improvement; in a race perhaps even weaker than last year, running to just a slightly improved level would see him go mighty close. He will have conditions in his favour, and it is telling that they switched owner and stablemate Irish Point to the Champion Hurdle; they must be confident in what they have here.
Joining him atop of the table is the young improver CRAMBO, who bids to earn a first Festival success for his trainer Fergal O’Brien. A hugely progressive novice hurdler last term, he landed the always-competitive EBF Final at Sandown, a race that is often worth following, and last year’s race followed suit with ten of the 16 in behind winning since. He was then tried in Grade 1 company at the Grand National Meeting at Aintree, in a red-hot Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, finishing seventh behind Irish Point. The six-year-old was tanking through that race and was travelling as well as any before being hampered badly by a faller at the third last and stopped in his tracks. The form of that has worked out extremely well this season too. He got off the mark early at Aintree this season and was an eye-catcher in the old Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock when rattling home late into third from a mark of 139; perhaps not given the best ride. The seven-year-old more than made amends when a determined winner of the Long Walk Hurdle last time, gamely repelling the challenge of Paisley Park, which is no mean feat even these days. He is perhaps the unexposed horse in the field and still has plenty of scope for improvement at this trip, just his third start at three miles plus.
Just below these and rounding out our shortlist is BUDDY ONE. Paul John Gilligan’s seven-year-old was mightily progressive as a novice hurdler last term, arriving at Cheltenham on the back of a runner-up finish in a Grade 3 at Thurles. From a mark of 131 he ran a cracker in the always-competitive Martin Pipe, historically a race to follow, when third beaten a length-and-a-half and just hanging after the last. He then backed that up with a good second to close the campaign at the Grand National Meeting from a 4lb higher mark and has this season already won at Cheltenham, landing the three-mile handicap at the November meeting in fine style from a much higher mark of 147. He has been disappointing the last twice in Grade 1 company, but has been given a break, and returns to a course in which he has an exemplary record.
4:10 Cheltenham – The TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
The one handicap chase over the intermediate trip at the Cheltenham Festival, it is a race that both novices and second season chasers have a fine record in. Whilst the last two winners didn’t match this profile, four of the previous five winners were novices and with the novices’ handicap removed from the meeting, this is a trend that is likely to grow. The likes of Crebilly, Saint Felicien, Arctic Bresil and others are novices who will be looking to improve this record in 2024.
As well as novices, lightly-raced second-season chasers have a good record in the race, with Empire Of Dirt and Siruh Du Lac recent examples of horses winning the contest in their first season out of novice company. The likes of Straw Fan Jack, Life In The Park and James Du Berlais fall into this category. Reinforcing this point that those more unexposed types are the ones to home in on, 12 of the past 19 winners had run nine times or less over fences, so focus on those who remain open to improvement.
In-keeping with the above point, younger horses had been dominant until the past couple of years and, though the last two winners were aged ten and eleven, the previous ten were nine or younger. In all, 18 of the last 23 winners were aged nine or younger and it would not be a surprise to see the dominance of the younger horse return. There are just three older horses in this year’s renewal, and the trio of ten-year-olds set to line up are Torn And Frayed, Shakem Up’Arry and Embittered.
Looking back further than the last two winners, and the past eight winners had contested a graded race as either a novice hurdler or novice chaser and those with a touch of class clearly have a good record in the race. Plenty of the field tick this trend, 12 to be exact.
Course form, as is the case with most of the Festival handicaps, is increasingly significant in the Plate, and the past five winners had all won at the track earlier in the season. Interestingly, Shakem Up’Arry is the only horse to have won at the track this season when an impressive seven-and-a-half length winner of the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase from a 3lb lower mark. Course specialist Il Ridoto has not won here this term but has run extremely well on all three starts with two thirds and a shorthead second, so he is respected all the same.
Last year’s winner Seddon very much arrived at the Festival in top form, winning his last two starts, and six of the past eight winners have now arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a top two finish, five of those winning. Perhaps surprisingly, just four horses arrive here on the back of a victory; Saint Felicien won a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park, the aforementioned Shakem Up’Arry here at Prestbury Park, Crebilly a strong novice chase at Exeter and Fighter Allen a Sligo chase in September when in the care of Willie Mullins. A recent run has also proved advantageous, with 14 of the past 18 winners running on or after the 25th January. Just five horses miss out on this trend, with Fighter Allen bidding to defy the longest break in the field, not seen for 169 days.
In terms of weights and ratings, all of the past ten winners were rated in the 140s and this is very much the area to focus on. Between 2000 and 2017, only two winners successful carried more than 11st and in all, just one winner this century carried more than 11st4lbs.
Shortlist
CREBILLY
GLENGOULY
ARCTIC BRESIL
There is one horse who comes out on top at the trends and that is the JP McManus-owned CREBILLY. Although not missed in the market at all now, his form is really starting to stack up well. He looked to be travelling well on chase debut at Cheltenham behind the now 155-rated Ginny’s Destiny before a fall two from home and may have given the winner something to think about, and again ran well behind that rival (and fellow Turners hopeful Grey Dawning) back here in December. He didn’t jump all that well that day but was much improved when an impressive winner of a strong three-runner handicap at Exeter in similar conditions to what is expected here. He jumped much better and stayed on well from the back of the last to get the better of Paul Nicholls’ Tahmuras, who more than boosted the form when a close second in a Grade 2 next time out. With just the three chase starts under his belt, he has proved mightily progressive and still has plenty of scope for improvement; he wouldn’t look out of place in a Graded novice chase and gets in here from a mark of just 140.
Just below, we have two Irish raiders (the Irish have won five of the last eight renewals) rounding out the shortlist. Whilst Willie Mullins has yet to win a handicap chase at the Festival despite his ever-growing dominance, he did have the fifth in this last year and his Meetingofthewaters ran an extremely good race in third yesterday in the Ultima, so he is knocking on the door. GLENGOULY beat Telmesomethinggirl on chase debut last year before his form tailed off in Graded company to end the year, but he has been a revelation switched to handicap company this term. He perhaps hit the front too soon when ran down into second in a Listed handicap at Limerick on seasonal return, before running a cracker in the always-competitive Thyestes Handicap Chase last time from a mark of 141. He travelled like a dream through that strong contest but was simply just outstayed by one with stamina in abundance over the extended trip. This drop back in trip looks sure to suit this strong travelling type and he looks to have a touch of class about him from a 5lb higher mark.
ARCTIC BRESIL left a striking impression when an eye-catching winner of a Cork maiden hurdle last term and was subsequently sent off at just 9/2 for the Grade 1 Tolworth. He ran no sort of race that day and clearly something was amiss, as he was not seen again until disappointing once again at Punchestown at the end of the season. Switched to fences this season, he hasn’t always jumped with the most fluency and is still a maiden but has chased home some smart types in defeat. He was beaten just over 12 lengths by subsequent Grade 3 winner Spillane’s Tower and the same distance by another Grade 3 winner in Tactical Move next time. He jumped better when chasing home Mister Policeman at Punchestown last time, staying on at the line, and left the impression that this step up in trip will see him to best effect. Henry De Bromhead’s string are hitting top form, and a mark of 135 could underestimate his natural ability.
4:50 Cheltenham – The Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run)
With just the eight renewals to date, trends for this race are now developing, although the outstanding (early) trends are that six of the eight winners were trained in Ireland and the first five of them were trained by Willie Mullins. His domination has seemed to revert in very recent years, though, as Jamie Snowden saddled You Wear It Well to victory last year, but Willie brings a leading fancy in Jade de Grugy. She looks a fine mare who is the only one in the eight-strong field who fits the trend of winning a Graded race last time out, which five of the previous eight winners had also achieved.
Speaking of strong fancies, six of the eight winners have returned at a price of 15-2 or shorter and this of course points towards the market leader Brighterdaysahead who will bid to complete the four timer for Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliot. Along with the two already mentioned, British-raider Dysart Enos is the other that fits into this category and receiving 5lb could make her a huge player for the Fergal O’Brien team, who can’t speak high enough about her attitude.
Birdie Or Bust and Titanium Moon are both second-season novices which has proved another key trend when determining the winner. Four of the previous eight winners have gone on to land the spoils as a second-season novice, while they also match the trend that six of the past eight winners have had four runs or more over hurdles. Little Miss Dante is the other in the field to match this, but this is the only key trend that she follows.
Strangely, it has been found that horses with form over further than this 2m1f contest are ones to keep a keen eye on. The rank outsider of the field Victoria Milano falls into this bracket. Maintaining a perfect record in the current season is always also a strong sign but has been found as a trend in this race for female novices. Quite a few of these in the field current remain unbeaten, which is why this could turn out as one of the most competitive races of all days, but this should boost the chances of Majestic Force and Golden Ace who are both 2-2 since sent hurdling.
Shortlist
JADE DE GRUGY
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD
BIRDIE OR BUST
Matching eight of the nine key trends, Willie Mullins should have a cracking chance at getting back to winning ways in this contest with his sole representative JADE DE GRUGY. Previously seen bolting home at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown in conditions like what is expected throughout the rest of the week, all the trends are pointing in her direction. The time of her maiden hurdle showed there was plenty of promise, and she defeated some good mares with relevant ease at Fairyhouse last time. The master of Closutton landed the same race with both Limini and Laurina prior to Festival success. Half of the winners of this contest, so far, have been French bred, another positive for JADE DE GRUGY.
However, this also makes an angle for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD who looks to be one of Gordon Elliot’s best chances of success at this year’s Festival. Gordon Elliot’s horses have been in fine form, but this mare is the one that he has been held in the highest regard by her trainer and she matches five of the key trends. She enhanced her claims with a facile victory in Listed company at Navan last time, and although a strange route to take over 2m5f, she does have two wins over this trip and looks a real classy type.
Lastly is the JP McManus-owned BIRDIE OR BUST who has a key advantage in the trends over the leading fancies. She did not start her career in a bumper in Ireland or Britian, which has proven a disadvantage that only two of the eight winners thus far have overcome, but J P McManus is now 0-9 in this race. He is another that has been in form though, with numerous big-money purchases before the festival and she could prove a good each-way price.
5:30 Cheltenham – The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Believe it or not this is a race that isn’t entirely dominated by horses trained in Ireland and although they took home the spoils with Angels Dawn for Sam Curling in 2023 the UK, have won 11 of the past 17 renewals. However, that being said, it would be mightily foolish to eliminate any Irish raider simply because of their passport.
There is a handful of trends that have proved to be key to pinpointing the winner of a race that tends to attract a sizable field.
Top-weights don’t often go all that close yet neither do those near the bottom of the race card. Ideally, we need to find a horse with an official rating between 137 and 143 as ten of the past 12 runners have had a rating within this range.
It also seems as if an abundance of experience is not all that essential either as horses aged nine or older don’t go all that well. Preferably we’d need to locate runners aged either seven or eight years of age as they have scooped nine of the last 11 renewals.
We also don’t want a horse that’s prolific as only two of the most recent 21 victors had won on their previous start.
So who does that leave us with? A quintet of Amirite, City Chief, Chavez, A Wave Of The Sea and Cool Survivor make the cut however there is a major concern with Amirite in terms of the ground. We’ve seen at the festival so far that you need a horse who is going to get through the very soft ground, and as he has only ever won on good ground under rules; he therefore has a major negative against him.
Shortlist
CITY CHIEF
CHAVEZ
A WAVE OF THE SEA
COOL SURVIVOR
There has been plenty of talk about the form of trainer Nicky Henderson, but can he potentially put the doubters in their place? CITY CHIEF is a former Grade 2 winner after picking up the Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby last year. He is a classy type who has shown signs of improvement at Warwick last time out. Representing owner Mrs J Donnelly, who has had a plethora of festival winners including State Man here on Tuesday.
From one trainer out of form to one who’s got his horses flying. CHAVEZ represents top trainer Willie Mullins. His front running style wouldn’t be a major negative and if his jumping holds up, he did fall at Leopardstown when in with a serious chance last time, he may ensure nobody can pass Mullins on the way to winning the festivals leading trainer.
A horse that raced in the same one that CHAVEZ fell in is COOL SURVIVOR. He managed to get round and produced a very pleasing run to finish in fourth. That will have stood him in good stead for a crack at this. He has never won over the bigger obstacles but what a way this would be to find his maiden chase victory.
Owner JP McManus has had a plethora of wins here at the festival and for various trainers however, none will have come for trainer Ben Haslam. One of the smaller yards that McManus has ties with, ‘he will be hoping A WAVE OF THE SEA can do far better than many expect. He has shown very little in three runs for his new trainer but based on what he achieved at his former residence with Joseph O’Brien, he’d have every chance.
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